Breaking the constitutional logjam

There has been a lot of discussion in the past few weeks about various strategies to achieve independence. These include John Swinney’s plan, which I wrote about a few days ago. There is also the decolonisation initiative which Salvo, the campaigning wing of Liberation Scotland is presenting to the United Nations, which in my opinion has only a remote chance of success. Even if the UN did consent to add Scotland to the list of colonised territories, which is highly unlikely – the UN has previously refused to recognise the colonial status of West Papua, which arguably has a much stronger case than Scotland to be recognised as a colony and whose case was presented by an organisation with widespread support amongst the indigenous West Papuan population, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the UK could and would block any efforts to force it to decolonise Scotland.

There’s also the counter proposal supported by over forty SNP branches which says that the combined total of votes for pro-independence parties on the regional list vote should be taken as a mandate for independence if this exceeds 50% of votes cast and the Scottish Government should then immediately open independence negotiations with Westminster.

While this could be a very effective means of ensuring that independence supporters actually turn up to the ballot stations and vote, and for that alone it’s a very welcome plan, there is an obvious problem with this idea. In the 2021 Scottish elections, between them the SNP, the Scottish Greens and Alba won 50.1% of the votes cast in the regional list. Yet this absolute majority of votes cast for pro-independence parties in an election which was dominated by the issue of a second independence referendum had zero influence upon the Westminster government. Westminster is just as likely to brush off a majority for the pro independence parties in the regional list vote in 2026, particularly if that combined total is, as would currently seem to be the best case scenario, in the low 50 plus percent range.

This brings us to the real reason for the current constitutional logjam. Although opinion polls are now returning regular majorities for Yes, and there are sound reasons for believing that many opinion polls underestimate the true level of support for independence, it remains unarguable that the population of Scotland remains divided on the independence issue and a good 40% plus are currently opposed to independence. Although there is a definite drift towards support for independence in Scotland over time, and I believe that there is now a solid single digit majority for independence, a majority which will only increase as the years pass, we are not yet at the point where it could be claimed that independence is the settled will of the people of Scotland.

In a recent article in The National, Robin Mc Alpine argued that the independence movement and pro-independence parties are effectively putting the cart before the horse in seeking strategies to bring about a referendum before a wish for independence could be said to be the settled will of the people of Scotland, pointing out that in other European nations where independence referendums have been held, the people overwhelmingly supported independence and the referendum was merely confirmational.

This is not entirely true, the Montenegrin independence referendum of 21 May 2006 was closely fought and produced a result of 55.5% for independence and the dissolution of the union with Montenegro’s larger neighbour Serbia, with 44.5% opposed. The anti-independence campaign campaign concentrated on pointing out “love” for union with Serbia. 73% of Montenegrin citizens had close cousins in Serbia and 78% of Montenegrin citizens had close friends in Serbia.

Robin Mc Alpine also neglected the role that an independence referendum campaign can play in boosting support for independence as it did in Scotland in 2014 and in Montenegro in 2006. A future independence referendum campaign in Scotland could potentially boost independence support in Scotland to well in excess of 60%, a figure which would prove an unarguable and incontrovertible level of support for independence.

However it is the existence of this substantial block of voters who are opposed to independence which allows Westminster to continue to deny a second independence referendum, safe in the knowledge that a significant chunk of Scots won’t complain too much about it, and with the security of support from the overwhelmingly anti-independence press in Scotland which will at most put up a mere token show of pretending to hold Westminster to account.

It follows then that the short term goal of the independence movement should be to shift the dial on independence and get Scotland as close as possible to making independence the settled will of the people of Scotland. One part of John Swinney’s plan for achieving independence could potentially do that. That’s the plan for a constitutional convention to be established ahead of the election in order to “marshal support” for independence and, critically, to establish that it is the sovereign right of the people of Scotland to determine the future of their country by themselves without the need seek permission from a British Prime Minister or anyone else. That will allow us to break through the current logjam.

There is greater support in Scotland for the principle that Scotland’s constitutional future should be Scotland’s alone to decide than there is for independence. Putting that principle on a formal footing for this generation, as it was with the Scottish Constitutional Convention in the 1980s, could go a long way to making the issue more salient in the minds of voters and help to create the groundswell of opinion necessary to break through Westminster intransigence. It would also create more interest in independence, getting people to talk about independence is a necessary precursor to getting people to vote for independence.

Whatever route to independence proves to be the successful one, it remains the case that without a pro-independence majority in the next Scottish Parliament – and that entails that the SNP remaining the largest party in Holyrood – independence will be off the table and the anti-independence parties will crow that Scots have delivered a vote of confidence in Westminster. Even if Scots do elect a majority of SNP MPs at the next Westminster general election, which on current showing looks likely to produce the nightmare of Nigel Farage as Prime Minister, those MPs will need the backing of a pro-independence Scottish Parliament in order to be able to effectively confront Farage’s English nationalism.

That means voting SNP in the constituency vote and SNP or Scottish Greens in the regional list as they are the only pro-independence parties with any chance of getting elected. With the SNP polling lower than they did in 2021, the party will depend on list seats if it is to have any hope of forming the next Scottish Government and protecting Scotland’s children, disabled people and elderly from the horrific cuts which Farage will introduce in order to give tax cuts to his party’s wealthy donors

_________________________________________________

I’ve added a new method to make supporting my work easier, you can now donate via Ko-fi

Or click the following link https://ko-fi.com/weegingerdug

Having abandoned Twitter I will be actively posting on BlueSky from now on. You can find me at https://bsky.app/profile/weegingerdug.bsky.social follow me there and I will generally follow back.

My Gaelic maps of Scotland are still available, a perfect gift for any Gaelic learner or just for anyone who likes maps. The maps cost £15 each plus £8 P&P within the UK. P&P to the USA or Canada is £18 and P&P to Europe is £14. P&P to Australia and New Zealand is £20. You can order by sending a PayPal payment of £23 to [email protected] (Please remember to include the postal address where you want the map sent to).

I am now writing the daily newsletter for The National, published every day from Monday to Friday in the late afternoon.  So if you’d like a daily dose of dug you can subscribe to The National, Scotland’s only pro-independence newspaper, here: Subscriptions from The National

I am also now selling my Cornish language map of Cornwall which was produced in collaboration with Akademi Kernewek, the umbrella body for Cornish language organisations. The approximately 1200 place names on the map were researched and agreed by the Akademi’s place name panel. The map is A1 in size. The Cornish maps cost £15 each plus £8 P&P within the UK.  P&P to the USA or Canada is £18 and P&P to Europe is £14. P&P to Australia and New Zealand is £20. You can order by sending a PayPal payment for the appropriate amount to [email protected]  or by using my PayPal.me link PayPal.Me/weegingerdug
https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/weegingerdug Please remember to include the postal address where you want the map sent to and clearly mark your payment Gaelic map or Cornish map). Alternatively contact me at [email protected] for other means to pay.

Within Cornwall the map is available at Kowsva, 6 Artists Muse, Heartlands, Poll/Pool – The Kowethas shop. They are also available from The Cornish Store in Aberfala/Falmouth. Other outlets in Cornwall will follow soon.

This is your reminder that the purpose of this blog is to promote Scottish independence. If the comment you want to make will not assist with that goal then don’t post it. If you want to mouth off about how much you dislike the SNP leadership there are other forums where you can do that. You’re not welcome to do it here.

You can help to support this blog with a PayPal donation. Please log into Paypal.com and send a payment to the email address [email protected]. Or alternatively click the donate button below. If you don’t have a PayPal account, just select “donate with card” after clicking the button. You can also donate by PayPal by using my PayPal.me link PayPal.Me/weegingerdug
https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/weegingerdug

Source