The need for iGERS

The pro-independence campaign group Believe in Scotland has proposed a replacement for the discredited GERS (Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland) figures which are published every year to the delight of British nationalists up and down the land. These statistics, which as Professor of Accountancy Practice Richard Murphy regularly points out, are based on unreliable and inaccurate guesswork, purport to show Scotland’s financial position. As I just as regularly point out, the GERS figures were introduced in the early 1990s by the Conservative Secretary of State for Scotland Ian Lang as a political tool to deploy against those arguing for greater self-government for Scotland. Over 30 years later they are still serving as a political tool used against those arguing for Scottish independence.

The GERS figures were designed in such a way to maximise the appearance of Scottish financial dependency on the good graces of the Westminster Treasury and Lang wanted some political ammunition to counter the movement for a Scottish Parliament which was gaining momentum in the 90s when it was still fondly hoped by its advocates that the Labour and Lib Dem parties would not water down proposals for a Scottish Parliament with a wide range of tax raising and borrowing powers and full control over energy policy and broadcasting. Spoiler alert, Labour shafted us.

The GERS figures have been such a successful political tool for opponents of independence that its proponents treat it as a form of holy writ, a sacred text whose supposed truth is handed down by infallible authorities who must never be challenged.

Yet even the GERS-stans have been reluctantly forced to concede that their beloved figures tell us the square root of hee-haw about the finances of an independent Scotland, but that doesn’t prevent Scotland’s anti-independence media running stories based on GERS about the supposed dire financial straits that an independent Scotland would be in without those kind and generous people in Westminster to shower their largesse upon the impecunious Scots. Every August, we have the ritual of the Scottish Government publishin figures that do remotely not represent the finances of an independent Scotland, and the anti-independnce media, which is most of it, immediately misrepresent these figures as proof that Scotland couldn’t afford to be independent.

The truth is that all the GERS figures do, none too accurately at that, is to tell us Scotland’s financial situation as a consequence of Westminster’s decisions. Scotland, by design of the Westminster parties, lacks the powers to make its own financial and economic choices outwith the very narrowly defined constraints of the devolution settlement. GERS includes billions of pounds in spending which Scotland doesn’t control, it includes large amounts of spending which isn’t even spent in Scotland and which doesn’t directly benefit Scotland. A percentage of UK Government borrowing that’s not related to Scotland (defence costs that an independent Scotland would not have, interest on debt that an independent Scotland wouldn’t have needed and debt share of ‘prestige projects’ concentrated in the South East of England) that doesn’t really benefit Scotland are all dumped into Scotland’s expenditure columns.

GERS is really nothing more than a statement of the damage that Westminster has done to Scotland. Rather than crowing about the GERS figures, they should make the Labour and Tory parties hold their heads in shame about how Westminster rule has supposedly reduced one of the most resources rich nations in Western Europe into an economic basket case. That however presupposes that they have the ability to feel shame, which seems unlikely.

Independence supporters often ask why the Scottish Government continues to participate in the annual charade of GERS, which the anti-independence media is fond of telling us is based on figures published by the Scottish Government, which is a piece of semantic sleight of hand designed to make Holyrood own the figures. In fact the GERS figures are largely based upon information supplied by the UK Government. Holyrood civil servants have no way of knowing how much UK Government spending is theoretically allocated to Scotland unless they are told so by the Westminster government. Neither do they have any way of knowing what share of revenues is theoretically allocated to Scotland on areas outwith the remit of the devolved parliament.

Should the Scottish Government refuse to co-operate, the Scotland Office would immediately step in to release its own figures, these would be structured in such a way so as to paint Scotland in an even worse financial light than GERS, and the unprincipled opportunist that is the oily Douglas Alexander would take to a sympathetic anti-independence media to crow about how the SNP withdrew from publishing GERS in an effort to hide from the Scottish people what he would dishonestly insist was the “truth” of Westminster’s “annual subsidy” to Scotland. He would explain away the increased “subsidy” in the new figures as being due to the SNP massaging the GERS figures to minimise their political damage to the independence cause. Scotland’s media would not scrutinise his claims too closely.

Pro independence criticisms of the GERS figures, even though they are well founded, gain little traction with the public. Believe in Scotland proposes the introduction of a new set of figures i-GERS, which would give the public a more accurate idea of the true financial strength of an independent Scotland.

Believe in Scotland proposes that alongside GERS, two other reports should also be published, these are:
S-GER – A clear report on the Scottish Government’s devolved revenues and expenditures, showing the sound management of Scotland’s (balanced) public finances under current limited spending and borrowing powers.

UK-GERS – The existing GERS data reframed to highlight that these are the UK’s accounts applied to Scotland, demonstrating how Westminster’s mismanagement inflates the supposed Scottish “deficit.”
i-GERS – A forward-looking report showing how an independent Scotland, with full powers over taxation, spending and investment, would perform whilst utilising a Wellbeing Economic Approach.
Published together, these could reframe the narrative and deprive the anti-independence press and parties of their annual GERSmas present. These combined reports could show that “Scotland’s deficit” is largely a creation of Westminster’s choices, and since the entire point of independence is to give Scotland the power to make different choices, this supposed deficit would largely vanish along with Westminster rule. An independent Scotland would have a stronger fiscal position, thanks to control over energy, exports, and taxation. This approach could turn GERS on its head and put the British parties on the defensive, forcing them to explain why Westminster’s choices are so damaging to Scotland.

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