Rising support for independence and the end of the so-called Union

There have been some mixed messages recently from opinion polling about the SNP’s chances of winning a majority at next year’s Holyrood election. Over the weekend The National published a report of an analysis of recent polling which suggested that the SNP could win a majority in its own right. This contrasts with other polling which points to the SNP being the largest party but falling short of a majority, although it remains likely that we will have a pro-independence majority at Holyrood composed of the SNP and the Scottish Greens.

It remains to be seen whether Jeremy Corbyn’s party, as yet unnamed, will adopt a platform in support of Scottish independence or not, and the extent to which its Scottish branch will be autonomous. A number of independence supporters, including three Scottish Green councillors from Glasgow, the Scottish Green candidate Ellie Gommersall and the erstwhile Alba members Craig Murray and Hugh Kerr have all jumped ship to join the new party. Given Corbyn’s previous statements that he believes the matter of an independence referendum should be for Scotland to decide, it seems that at worst, the new party will not be hostile to Scottish independence even if it doesn’t overtly espouse independence.

It also remains to be seen whether the new party will garner sufficient support to get its Holyrood candidates elected and if so, where that support will come from. I’d imagine that a good part of it could come from that large segment of Labour’s support in Scotland which is neutral to or supportive of independence and which is in despair over Starmer’s move to the right.

For independence supporters this leaves us with the question of who to vote for in the regional list vote. Voting SNP in the constituency vote should be a given. There are a number of points to consider here. Firstly the topic of gaming the d’Hondt system in order to maximise pro-independence representation comes up every time a Holyrood election is in the offing. No one has ever come up with a fool proof method of doing so. There’s a reason for that. It’s next to impossible to vote tactically in the list successfully as to do so requires accurate advance knowledge of the results in all the constituency seats in the region. which you can only do with a Tardis. The simple fact is – however unpalatable it may be to independence supporters – anti-independence parties get elected on the regional list because people vote for them. The anti-independence groups focus their tactical voting campaigns on the constituency vote.

The other important point to bear in mind is that the only time the SNP ever secured a majority it did so on the back of regional list seats and a campaign which centred on persuading independence supporters to give both their votes to the party. Given the current state of polling, the SNP will need regional list seats more than ever in 2026.

The other unpalatable truth for certain independence supporters is that if you give your list vote to a party with no chance of getting elected, you are effectively increasing the chances of an anti-independence candidate getting elected. Alba, ISP, Liberate Scotland, and other minor independence parties have no realistic chance of getting any of their candidates elected. Alba is currently looking as though it may not survive, as it is plagued by defections and its internal disputes mean that it may not even be able to field candidates as the only person able to sign their candidates off is their former general secretary Chris McEleny with whom Alba’s leadership is embroiled in a bitter dispute.

I know I will be deeply unpopular with certain people for pointing this out but it needs to be said. You may feel warmly self-righteous by voting for one of these smaller parties, but all that will happen is that the Labour, Tory, Reform, or Lib Dem candidate will thank you. Self-righteousness counts for nothing in politics, all that counts is winning elections.

As things stand the only pro-independence parties which can get their candidates elected are the SNP and the Scottish Greens and if independence is your priority you should vote SNP in the constituency and SNP or Green in the regional list. That advice may change if Corbyn’s party comes out in support of independence and performs well in the polls, but at the moment a vote for any other pro-independence party is a wasted vote.

The good news is that support for independence remains high. An opinion poll published on Monday gave support for independence a ten point lead 55% Yes to 45% No once don’t knows are removed. All this remember is in the absence of an independence referendum in whose campaign Better Together Mk II will be dragged down by the lies and deceit of Better Together Mk I. All that opponents of independence can offer next time round is a UK led by Nigel Farage, racism, further alienation from Europe, and the devastation of public services, human and employment rights and environmental protections and the neutering of the Scottish Parliament. Support for independence will certainly increase even further once a proper referendum campaign gets underway. 60% plus is achievable.

Make no mistake, unless Scotland returns a Parliament with a strong pro-independence majority in May next year, that is the bleak future that is in store for us. The good news is that we can avoid that fate, and if we focus on achieving what is good instead of chasing the chimera of the perfect, we will avoid that fate.

Getting that referendum will require a two pronged strategy. We need a pro-independence majority in Holyrood after May 2026. Then we need the SNP to handsomely win the next Westminster general election in Scotland.

British politics are in a state of flux. Labour is vulnerable to the rise of the English Greens, whose new leader Zack Polanski has voiced his support for Scottish and Welsh independence. There’s also the still unkown quantity of the new left wing party of Corbyn which could hoover up Labour votes. Corbyn’s party is unlikely to share the visceral opposition to independence of Starmer’s Labour and may even be supportive of it. Meanwhile the Tories are rapidly tail-spinning to irrelevance and the right has been captured by a far right party of nostalgic and self-pitying English nationalism.

Following the next Westminster general election, we could have pro-independence governments in Scotland and Wales, a Sinn Fein government at Stormont, an overtly racist English nationalist government in Westminster which is rejected in Scotland and Wales, and a powerful left wing Westminster opposition which is at best supportive of Scottish and Welsh independence and Irish reunification, or at worst neutral on the issue. It’s difficult to see how the UK could survive this, particularly with pro-independence Scottish and Welsh Governments which refuse to co-operate in the undermining of the devolution settlement and which constantly push back against Westminster. Under such circumstances the collapse of the UK could happen very quickly, as predicted by the late Tom Nairn in his book The Break up of Britain published way back in the 1970s.

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