The days of playing by rules stacked against Scotland will soon be over
Speymouth
Just eighteen months ago, we were looking at the prospect of this year’s Scottish elections with dread and trepidation. Labour was in the ascendant on the back of its victory in the July 2024 Westminster General election and Anas Sarwar was confidently expecting to install himself in Bute House as First Minister, some excitable Labour commentators were even anticipating a Labour majority in the Scottish Parliament, a nightmare scenario which would have led to the Scottish press exultantly crowing that independence is dead, and it would indeed have been off the political radar for years, leaving Scotland dangerously exposed should England return a Westminster government at the next Westminster general election.
But things are looking more hopeful now, although we certainly cannot take anything for granted. Opinion polls concur that the most probable outcome of the Holyrood election in May will be a significant pro-independence majority, although the SNP look set to fall short of winning a majority in their own right. Both Labour and the Tories are in deep trouble, facing the loss of a significant part of their support to Reform UK, which is out-doing them in the deceitful lying British nationalist stakes. Even figures like the right wing broadcaster and commentator Andrew Neil have had to acknowledge that their right wing British nationalism has little appeal in Scotland. Neil, who lives in France, was last seen on social media fuming about the “death wish” of Scots who stubbornly resist his Tory blandishments and keep voting SNP. Aww, diddums.
Both the SNP and the Scottish Greens have got their independence mojo back with the SNP allying with Believe in Scotland to promote a well-being agenda as the basis for a renewed push for independence. Opinion polling has shown that such an approach could potentially resonate with voters and push support for independence over the psychologically important 60% mark. For their part, the Scottish Greens have unveiled a new and more combative approach to dealing with Westminster governments.
All this comes against a background of rising support for independence, even a no-friendly polling company like Survation recorded a narrow majority for Yes in its most recent independence poll. Polls with a Yes majority are now a regular occurrence. The more jaded end of the independence movement still bemoan this, complaining that support for independence is not higher. Yet any poll with a Yes majority is a remarkable achievement given the ludicrously biased anti-independence media landscape in Scotland and the absence of a date for a second independence referendum.
Most people don’t think too much about politics, only coming to a decision once they have a firm appointment with the ballot box. Given the incessant SNP bad and anti-independence media barrage, it’s remarkable that there’s a consistent Yes majority in the polls and the SNP look set to win a fourth Scottish election in a row. Just today BBC Scotland is repeating Labour attack lines insisting that Nicola Sturgeon and John Swinney are criminally responsible for failings in the cooling system in Glasgow’s new Southern General hospital ( I refuse to call it the Queen Elizabeth) which led to the deaths of some patients due to water borne bacterial infection. Apparently expertise in HVAC systems is a prerequisite for the position of First Minister and Nicola Sturgeon should have been on the roof of the hospital with a wrench instead of leading Scotland through the pandemic. I’m sure Anas Sarwar has a City & Guilds qualification in plumbing. It’s funny how BBC Scotland has been remarkably quiet about the Labour party inventing quotes on its election leaflets and being forced to apologise. That’s funny in the sense of “tediously predictable.”
But on to more positive news from the Scottish Greens, which was “funnily” ignored by BBC Scotland. The Scottish Greens party council has adopted a new independence strategy proposed by co-leaders Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay. The strategy, which you might call muscular independentism to counter the muscular unionism we’ve seen of late from Westminster, entails taking a much more confrontational and combative approach to Westminster using existing legislative powers more effectively, as well as pushing the limits of devolution and picking more fights with the UK Government. The adoption of the new strategy comes after First Minister John Swinney has said he will demand for another Scottish independence referendum to be held if the SNP win a majority at Holyrood later this year, saying getting a second referendum could only be achieved if his party win a majority in May.
Personally I see this as being a tactic designed to maximise the SNP turn out and vote in May, and while I’m fully behind anything that will maximise the pro-independence vote, I can’t see Westminster responding very differently to an SNP majority than to a pro-independence majority made up of the SNP and the Greens, Starmer will simply shift the goalposts as Westminster did in 2021 and insist that Scotland didn’t vote for independence, pointing to percentage vote share or some other “Look over there!” The precedent of 2011 will magically no longer be a precedent just like getting a pro-independence majority in Holyrood magically ceased to be a mandate for a referendum in 2021 after the pro-independence parties achieved it.
The importance of May’s Scottish election lies in creating the necessary framework for the real independence push which will come with the next Westminster general election in Scotland. At that election, the SNP could take a large majority of Scotland’s Westminster seats. That, combined with a pro-independence Scottish Government and hopefully a Plaid Cymru administration in Cardiff and a Sinn Fein administration in Belfast will create the perfect storm of credibility for the UK as currently constituted. If Reform and the Tories form a majority UK Government, Scotland’s MPs should deploy every arcane rule in the Commons playbook to gum up the workings of the Commons until negotiations on Scotland’s future are opened. Or they could withdraw to form a Scottish National Convention with MSPs to demand negotiations on independence and refuse to cooperate with Westminster, forcing a constitutional crisis. One way or another, the days of playing meekly by rules stacked against Scotland will be over.
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