Holyrood 2026, it’s up to all of us now
Speymouth
While we were busy with a visit from my husband’s family from the United States, the SNP party conference was taking place in Aberdeen. The party came out of the conference united behind the First Minister’s plan for independence and irrespective of the merits or demerits of the plan, it cannot be denied that independence was front and foremost at the conference and will be in the forefront of the SNP’s campaign in the Holyrood election which is due in May next year. SNP members overwhelmingly backed leader John Swinney’s “clear and unambiguous” independence strategy that a majority election win is the route to another independence referendum. The motion backed by the membership stated that the Holyrood election should be fought on a “clear platform of national independence” and that the SNP winning a majority in the Scottish parliament – by securing 65 seats or more – would be “the only uncontested way to deliver a new vote on Scotland’s future”.
That word “uncontested” is key as it does not rule out that a pro-independence majority in Holyrood would also be a way to deliver a new independence referendum, but the motion recognises that a majority victory for the SNP, such as was won in 2011, deprives the Westminster government of the political wriggle room which it used after the 2021 Scottish elections to deny that the Scottish Government had a mandate for another independence referendum.
There are of course two large flies in the ointment. Firstly there is Keir Starmer’s declaration that he will not concede to another Scottish independence referendum no matter the outcome of the election. Apparently democracy in Scotland doesn’t matter any more, and should that political travesty come to pass, BBC Scotland and most of the media in Scotland will Brit-splain and gaslight it away just as they did in 2021.
Given the current state of the polls there is also the unlikelihood of the SNP achieving a majority in its own right. The electoral system employed in Scottish elections is designed to make it extremely difficult for a party to win an outright majority, and with the polls as they are it’s hard to see how the SNP can pull off a repeat of 2011 and win a simple majority. Yet polling suggests that the SNP is not far off achieving an absolute majority and a campaign which motivates independence supporters to get out and vote could push them over the line. However it is worth noting that prior to the 2011 election polling suggested that Labour was on track to win, so nothing can be taken for granted. On a positive note for the SNP, in 2026, the anti-independence vote will be divided like never before, with the frothing far right Anglo-British nationalists in the shape of Reform UK making significant inroads into the Labour and Tory vote and the wild card of Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party threatening Labour on the left.
There’s a chance that the SNP could win a majority in May next year, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. More likely is a result similar to 2021 with a pro-independence majority composed of the SNP and the Scottish Greens. Given its internal divisions and lack of any clear messaging other than harking back to Alex Salmond, it’s vanishingly unlikely that Alba will win any seats at all, and even less likely that the other pro-independence parties will scrape together 1% of the vote. The good news is that both the SNP and the Scottish Greens are now in favour of a more robust and assertive approach to securing independence.
The other promising development is that John Swinney has said that he has a plan up his sleeve which he’ll reveal if and when Keir Starmer refuses to concede to another independence referendum. He’s right not to unveil this plan now as to do so would forewarn the Labour government and prompt the anti-independence media and their allies to pick holes in it. I would imagine that this plan could be deployed irrespective of whether there’s an SNP absolute majority in Holyrood or a pro-independence majority composed of the SNP and the Scottish Greens – who have promised a new bold and assertive approach to independence under their newly elected co-leaders Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay. The Scottish Greens would certainly back any initiative aiming to force the issue of independence and put Westminster on the back foot.
What the plan might be we can only speculate. Back in 2011, Alex Salmond had a back up plan which he intended to deploy should then Prime Minister David Cameron refuse to allow an independence referendum to take place. It’s worth noting that then as now, the SNP were in a weak position in the House of Commons with just six MPs.
Alex Salmond’s plan was for Holyrood to hold a referendum asking the people of Scotland if the Scottish Parliament should have the power to hold an independence referendum. Attempting something similar now still runs the risk of running afoul of the UK Supreme Court, however from a political point of view creating a crisis of legitimacy for Westminster is no bad thing. This approach also has the not inconsiderable political advantage of putting the spotlight on Starmer and forcing him to specify exactly what the democratic route to another referendum might be. This is a question he continues to try and dodge all while maintaining that the UK is a voluntary union.
I have no idea whether this is the plan that John Swinney has in mind, but it’s reassuring to know that he has clearly signalled that he will not meekly accept No as an answer after the people of Scotland speak through the ballot box and make their wish for another referendum known. But key to it all is maximising the SNP seat count – and doing so means voting SNP in the constituency vote and in the list, especially where the Greens are not in contention.
It’s up to all of us now. With the UK looking at actual Anglo-British fascism looming on the horizon, the stakes are far too high to piss about with self-righteousness or old grudges. For the Scottish independence movement, the SNP and the Scottish Greens are the only realistic electoral options in town. No other pro-independence party is going to win any seats and a vote for them is a wasted vote. This could be our last chance to secure a pro-independence Holyrood. Let’s not blow it.
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