It’s not just independence that’s at stake in May’s Scottish election
Speymouth
Another opinion poll has suggested that the pro-independence parties are on track to win a convincing majority in Holyrood in May’s Scottish parliament election. The poll, by Find Out Now for The National, paints a grim picture for both Labour and the Conservatives, who seem set to return their worst results in the history of the devolved parliament. Labour and the Tories are looking at the prospect of falling far behind the far right English nationalist ghouls of Reform UK, who seem set to prosper at the expense of Labour and the Tories, becoming the largest anti-independence bloc in the new Scottish Parliament.
According to this poll, all these parties will be left in the dust by the SNP, which is likely to remain by a long chalk the largest party in Holyrood. However, with 59 seats, the SNP falls short of the absolute majority it seeks. That said, the Scottish Greens are looking as though they’ll pick up extra seats, with 13, so between them and the SNP, the pro-independence parties would have 72 seats, comfortably ahead of the anti-independence parties with a combined total of 57 seats. Alba and the other minor independence parties are not polling at levels anywhere close to what is needed for them to pick up seats, this poll confirms a pattern consistent from previous polls carried out by other companies.
This is not something that advocates of Alba or the other small pro-independence parties like to hear, while they have a small but highly vocal presence in certain corners of the internet, they have almost zero cut through outside their social media bubbles. It might sound reassuring to tell yourself – “if only” all independence supporters would swing behind Alba, the ISP, or Liberation Scotland in the regional list vote, then we could win a pro-independence supermajority in May. But it’s not going to happen. It’s a fantasy. Politics has to deal with the real world, not the world as you might like it to be.
If supporters of these parties really were interested in maximising pro-independence representation in Holyrood, they’d be advocating a vote for the Scottish Greens in the regional list vote, after all the Scottish Greens are the only pro-independence party other than the SNP which has both a proven ability to get MSPs elected, and which is polling at levels sufficient to suggest that it can successfully get its candidates elected in May, yet they never advocate that. Apparently the Scottish Greens want the ‘wrong’ kind of independence. Or like the SNP which these persons hate so viscerally, they supposedly don’t really want independence at all. The keyboard warriors of these unelectable parties are putting their partisanship ahead of the Yes unity they claim to hold dear.
Supporters of the minor parties need to accept reality, by continuing to attack the SNP and the Scottish Greens, the only pro-independence parties which are able to win seats, they are doing the anti-independence parties’s job for them. Advocating a vote for one of these parties on the regional list, when they have no chance of winning, is doing exactly what these minor parties’ advocates accuse the SNP’s vote 1 and 2 tactic of doing – handing seats to unionists. In May 2026 this is especially dangerous as it could lead to the election of far right Anglo-British nationalists from Reform UK.
I’m voting SNP in my constituency vote in Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley. I’m also going to vote SNP in my regional list vote for the South Scotland region as the Scottish Greens have no chance of winning a list seat in this region while the SNP do. Attempting to game the d’Hondt system is for mugs. In other parts of Scotland you should vote SNP in the constituency and SNP or Scottish Green in the list according to your preference, but remember the SNP are going to need list seats if they are to come close to winning a majority.
All independence supporters need to turn out and vote SNP in the constituency vote, we are not just voting to show support for independence, we are voting to reject a hard right Anglo-British nationalism which poses an existential threat to migrant and minority communities, to the powers and indeed the continuing existence of the Scottish Parliament, and which will assault civil liberties, human, rights, and public services in order to neuter opposition to the interests of the super-rich who bankroll the far right and whom it serves. If you sit on your hands in this election, whining “They’re all the same,” you’ll quickly find out that they’re not all the same when it’s your rights, your civil liberties and your public services that the far right comes after next. You think they’re going to stop at trans people, immigrants, and the disabled? Think again. Farage is quite likely to move against the Scottish independence movement in future. We could very easily be next.
All independence supporters, and indeed anyone who is repulsed by the far right, needs to vote SNP in the constituency vote in order to shut out Reform UK. Even if you are not an independence supporter, you need to ask yourself, what repels you more – Scottish independence, or a UK which falls into the clutches of fascism? Such voters need to get behind the party in their constituency which is best placed to defeat Reform UK. In most cases that’s going to be the SNP. If you can’t bring yourself to vote SNP and you allow a Reform UK constituency candidate to get elected, you are enabling fascism. It’s that simple.
This is why this Scottish election is so important. We are not just voting in order to keep the dream of independence alive, we are voting to secure democracy, humanity, and common decency from the duplicitous liars and astroturfers of the far right, the perpetrators of the greatest con in modern political history. The far right demonises minorities and spreads hatred and division in order to protect and defend the one minority which really is responsible for the crumbling of public services, the cost of living crisis, the difficulty in securing affordable decent housing or safe and well paid jobs. That minority is the super-rich, the tiny minority pouring millions of pounds into funding far right parties and think tanks, and creating social media platforms and algorithms which relentlessly push far right messaging. Billionaires, not migrants or trans people, are the real enemies of humanity, and Reform UK is their creature.
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