Pro-independence parties on course to win combined 56% share of the vote on the Holyrood list ballot – and Alba are still registering

Today’s astonishing Ipsos-Mori / STV poll, which showed 55% support for independence, also had encouraging news for all three of the major pro-independence parties in the Holyrood voting intention numbers…

Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions:
SNP 52%
Conservatives 19%
Labour 17%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Greens 3%

Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions:

SNP 43%
Conservatives 20%
Labour 15%
Greens 12%
Liberal Democrats 6%
Alba 1%

Seats projection (with changes from May 2021): SNP 68 (+4), Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-2), Greens 12 (+4), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)
So Alba continue to register in the polls – and it can’t be underestimated how important it is for the party to retain that toehold of credibility when it’s trying to establish itself and is being starved of media publicity.  The fact that the Greens are so close to matching Labour on the list vote would have been a matter of huge concern for unionists if it had happened five or ten years ago, because it would have opened up the possibility of the main left-of-centre opposition to the SNP being a pro-independence party in the future.  However, that *ought* to be an academic consideration now, assuming the promise of a referendum by the end of 2023 is honoured.
As for the SNP, these numbers suggest they’d improve on May’s result markedly in any new election and win an overall majority.  However, as mentioned in the previous post, Ipsos-Mori don’t weight by recalled vote, and also overestimated the SNP’s support back in the spring.  So it could be that a systemic error simply hasn’t been corrected yet.

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